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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Team Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Future Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that change a-coming, rolling round the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.